The Future of Work: The Future of Cities

Do we even need cities any more, Clark?

Well, ok. But here we are on Zoom, covering all the things we used to do at our morning meeting in the office. So why do we need that office? … To flirt at the watercooler? No thanks, I have Tinder!

You’re assuming Covid will pass. It might be here to stay. And if it is, that means social distancing is here to stay. People aren’t going to want to travel on cramped trains to busy offices in crowded city centres. They will change the way they operate so as to avoid city centres.

But what if they don’t? Or what if new strains develop?

Let’s assume that a cure or vaccine is found, people are still going to be far more cautious than they were. Particularly the over 65s, or anyone who comes into contact with them.

In a world in which the day-to-day risk of infection is high, in which people don’t want crowds, we will see a turnaround in the fate of cities – a mass exodus to the cheaper, more spacious lifestyle of the country.

Samuel Johnson is no more, now it’s Boris Johnson! There were certain trends in place before Covid struck. Covid just accelerated them. We were always going to do more shopping online - the high street and the shopping mall were already dying. More and more people were working remotely. Consultations with doctors were being conducted via videocall, now that’s the norm. Therapy and counselling. AA meetings are being held online. Education, entertainment, more and more of our lives are being conducted remotely. 2020 will be one of those landmark years when everything changed. 1066, 1945, the “The Summer of Love” even

They do. There will be a reversion. But not a total reversion. Many will come to prefer these new ways of doing things, including the bosses. People who work remotely can be more productive. They don’t need to commute any more. Less time wasted in meetings. Companies with lots of remote workers won’t need such large expensive offices. We are just discovering that for so many jobs you don’t need to be there to do them.

Don’t agree. More and more of us are becoming freelancers. There are all sorts of online reputation systems - the equivalent of getting a good review on Amazon or TripAdvisor, only for your work. If you can find a wife on the internet surely you can find a co-worker!

I’ve told you. Covid and tech.

I don’t think it is, Clark. I’m not saying everybody’s going to leave cities. We will, however, see de-urbanisation.

Yes, but you don’t need to be in a city to have social contact. How often can you meet friends in London without both of you planning it days in advance? You can be more social in a town, in a village. What is going to reverse is this extraordinary centralisation we have seen in the last 20 or 30 years around places like London, New York, Shanghai and so on.

To seek his fortune.

That’s another point. Those at the bottom. If fewer and fewer office workers are in cities, what about those who serve them coffee in the morning on their way to work? Or clean their offices after they’ve left? The waiters, the cleaners, the drivers? Many live in crowded dormitories - that can’t be too nice in a Covid lockdown - trying to save money. What is their future in this new world of empty cities? If there is no work for them, they will go elsewhere.

You could though - or a couple of hamlets away. Dating apps have long replaced going to bars and clubs hoping to meet someone. Algorithms that understand you better than you do yourself find partners for you. Now we are seeing virtual dates. Drinking wine together, talking, vetting each other. Even sex itself is going online. Casual hook-ups in a Covid world look rather less desirable. But there is sexting, video sex, cam sex.

Er … I read about it.

I saw a documentary last week about robot sex dolls.

What’s the future going to be for escorts and the “oldest profession”? Surely that too is heading online. Even holidays - you mark my words, staycations will be a growth area.

When you take your holidays at home. You do many of the things you might do on holiday, but from home. You read, you relax, you pamper yourself. Businesses that cater to this will surely grow.

Not internationally, not while this virus is floating about. We will get more insular.

Why are you so down on Norfolk? But that’s not the point, because fewer people will fly, the cost of flights will go up.

In city centres?

Yes, but then you might get clusters. Something like Leamington spa - which makes some of the worlds finest video games.

Yup. It’s clustered with video games geeks. That’s another thing!

Driverless cars.

They’re inevitable. And when they come, using the internet of things to communicate with other vehicles, traffic lights and navigation systems, they will deliver quicker, cheaper, crowd-free travel. Journey times will lessen and they’ll make migration away from cities all the more practical.

Even more ridiculous.

Not in city centres, no. There isn’t going to be much buying from overseas. Not much tourism. Things look grim for the theatre district and the entertainment industry. Central London has big problems.

But people moving from London to the regions should be good for the regions. This is another trend that was already in place - property prices in London had been lagging the rest of the UK since 2015, before Corona came.

Well you better enrol in that excel course then Clark – spit spot